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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.