Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
